Sunday, May 18, 2008

How Rude of You to Notice! Gail and I were driving down Route 41 one day and there as a minor fender bender off to one side of the road. The two automobiles involved were off on the turn lane way off to the right. There were two sheriff deputies and their cruisers with lights flashing; one in front of the accident and one behind. None of the cars were a physical hindrance to the flow of traffic. Traffic, however was backed up for at least one half mile in either direction. As I approached the accident site, I was determined not to look. I kept my eyes focused on the car ahead of me, forcing my concentration away from the side of the road; feeling my blood pressure rise every time the guy in front of me turned his head and slowed his car. My mother's admonition of it being "rude to notice was ringing in my ears. My mother was a sweet lady that stood about five feet tall and weighed around 100 pounds. But those 100 pounds packed a sharp wit and ability to cut me down to her size with ease. Now understand that I am 260 pounds and six feet four inches tall and I don't cut down easily. One of things she taught me was, "Gregg, it's rude to notice." I still remember with a smile, when mom, in her later years, her, well, um, sphincter muscles weren't as athletic as they should be. If I dared to exclaim "Oh Ma, pullleeese!" to her as she rather noisily walked around her kitchen, she would, without hesitation, turn and look me in the eyes and say, " How rude of you to notice!". But, it's human nature to notice, it's what we do after we notice that is important. In my business we track the foreclosures. Every Monday I get a complete summary put on my desktop of all the lis pendens and the properties scheduled to go to the court house steps. I will admit to you that when I first get the lists my immediate reaction before organizing the spread sheet by value and then by region or bank so we can best serve our clients that deal in paper; is to scan the list of property owners to see if there is any one I know. (There always is; Sorry mom). We live in such an open society compared to other countries. Did you know that in Germany most sellers of homes don't even allow a sign to be put in their yard? If a broker over there wants to find out the history of a particular home, nothing is on computer, or if it is, the information is protected. They can't look up the owner of an address like we can, they can't get a running total of sales in the district, or indeed see what a house sold for down the street: At least not very easily. We Americans don't think "noticing" is rude. We believe that it is our right. We are accustomed to open information, frank open discussions, and open and free dissemination of information. I shudder to think how tough my residential and commercial business would be if I could not sit here by the riverside in my shorts and tee shirt and do research on property and people on my laptop. For example, right now we are involved in the acquisition of large portfolio of bad paper from a small group of banks. The means we will be acquiring the notes and mortgages from defaulted homes for our client. Some properties in the portfolio have already completed the foreclosure process; some are still in the process. We will be bringing in over 150 single family homes to sell and many vacant lots. Once our final offer is accepted we will have just over TWO WEEKS of due diligence. Imagine inspecting documents and doing physical inspection of over 150 homes in two weeks without all the easy access we have to information, with out court records and liens at our fingertips, without Google Earth for aerial pictures and mapping systems for locating the properties. When I first get the packages, the first thing I look at is the total. Twenty Million dollars; Forty Million dollars: Just numbers right? But all real estate is local and each property has a name, a family, and certainly always a story. This is not a commodity like corn or pork bellies. Foreclosures are everywhere and it would be a rare resident of Lee County that does not know someone that is going through it. When you read in the press about large hedge funds buying up portfolios of loans, remember that there always has to be "feet on the ground"; there has to be a company to manage each individual property and deal with each individual loan. The homes need to be taken care of, lawns need to be mowed, electric bills to be paid, and the home has to be preened for the market. There are personalities involved in every deal. It is certainly hard to not "notice" the foreclosure issue. Foreclosure. Real estate is one of the few things that you buy in life that needs all sorts of documents describing and proving that you indeed own it. Most things you own you can possess, you can move the item and proving ownership is more a matter of acting as an owner. Not so with real estate. In fact having the title does not even prove ownership, according to some court cases. Title insurance, however, will solve most of these situations for the borrower. The lender will require title insurance for just this reason. The insurance protects the lender and you against claims against that title that may occur after you close. Florida is a lien theory state. Here in Florida the property acts as collateral for the note. When you borrow money to buy a home you sign two very important documents. The first is a note to the bank that says something like, "I promise to pay you X dollars under the following terms". The second piece of paper is a mortgage. In effect, you give a signed mortgage to the lender that says if I DON"T pay you, you can take my house instead. When you fail to perform to the terms of your note, the bank will file a lis pendens, in effect a public notice that the property is being foreclosed upon. Full foreclosure proceedings can take six months to a year for an uncontested foreclosure. Once the home is foreclosed upon, the bank may be entitled to a deficiency judgment that will allow the bank to seek damages that they may incur if the amount of money they get for the foreclosed property at auction is short of the amount owed. In addition, any amount of loan that is forgiven by the bank may have adverse tax consequences as well and may be treated as taxable income to the borrower. Should you find yourself in the unfortunate position of being foreclosed upon, please seek the advice of a competent attorney and tax advisor. This is not a matter to be treated lightly and there are ramifications of taking no action at all. Do not hide your head in the sand and hope the situation goes away. That being said there are a large number of homes that have been foreclosed upon or are in the process of being foreclosed upon that will find their way back to the buyers at market prices that in many cases are less than half or what was owed to the bank. ( This will be the case on the properties we will bring to market shortly) A good real estate agent can work with you to find these bargains. Do not fool yourself that just because the house sold for $400,000 three years ago it is a bargain at $200,000. This may or may not be the case. Get competent advice here. Once you decide to spend a certain amount of money, look at all your alternatives. Real Estate, like Politics, is Local Lee County real estate may be affected by the national trends; heck we may have even influenced the national trend, but we are not, in any shape or form, just like the national trend. Real Estate prices are a very local thing. Prices for an identical home can vary from place to base based on location, orientation to the sun, closeness to a bus line or shopping, and who or what is next door. Let's not be fooled by media reports discussing national trends. They are meaningless to the guy that wants to sell his canal front lot. All he needs is one qualified buyer to walk up to his door with a checkbook. But let's take a look at some of these media trends regarding the housing market. There are seven states that have a "situation" regarding foreclosures The Midwest states of Ohio, Michigan, and Indiana have been the states hardest hit with the number of foreclosures, but these foreclosures were caused by the loss of jobs and a trend that started years ago.The heavy investor states of California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida were affected by investor glee. The job losses followed by the downturn in the construction industry. Locally Lehigh was hit harder than Cape Coral, the North Cape harder than the South West Cape, and single family homes harder than condos. What really brought on the current over supply situation locally was affordability. A few years ago I was attending meetings and conferences about the affordable housing crisis. The new buzzword was "workforce" housing. Where were our teachers, policemen and the people that worked for a living going to be able to afford to live? One of the reasons Florida grew so fast over the years was the ready availability of affordable housing. Heck it was cheap to move here and it was cheap to live. When that no longer became the case, people stopped buying. They stopped buying but the problem is builders failed to notice this and were slow to react or were unable to act because of the long supply chain between land acquisition, permitting, building, and getting a certificate of occupancy. Or indeed they noticed it, but failed to tell their "investors" that the exit strategy the investor was counting on was locked shut by lack of demand.What is going to get us out of the housing crisis, at least locally, is the return of affordability. It's happening now. Buyers are returning to scoop up the bargains left in the path of the foreclosure steam roller. Banks are taking it on the chin an average of 60% on the unpaid balances. Buyers, and these are the end users that left in August of 2005, are realizing great savings on their purchases compared to prices of late 2005 and early 2006. Don't take my word for it , get a reliable Realtor and get the facts. Remember, you make your money when you buy, not when you sell. Only you decide how much you will pay for something, but when you sell, you need to let the buyer make the decision on what he will pay. Come on back to the housing market. It is affordable again.

Gregg.Fous@engelvoelkers.com

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Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Paralysis by Analysis in Real Estate I am sure that all of you have heard term "Analysis Paralysis" and even seen or experienced the phenomenon yourself. Whatever the decision that needs to be made, it is forestalled and in most cases avoided, by excessive analysis. As Realtors we see it all the time. Commercial transactions may have a higher incidence of it but more and more residential buyers are suffering from the same malady. I may suffer from the reverse malady: "Ready? Fire! Aim!" but both maladies have some things in common and I would like to go over some of them point by point ( Is this too much analysis?? LOL): 1. The more complex the situation.

Ok, it's pretty clear if there is a deal or transaction that you don't understand, you will have to do some analysis first. The less background you have, the less experience you have, the more comparisons and indeed, study you will have to do. I guy like me, that may have many transactions under his belt on duplexes for rent may seem like a "ready, fire, aim" guy, when buying another duplex; but the reality is that familiarization lessens the need for analysis. I may make assumptions on past experience where the newbie cannot. He must analyze more deeply.

2. The higher the risk.

We must always keep in mind that the amount of analysis should be in direct relationship to the amount of risk. If I am a newbie making an offer on a duplex, and the only risk I am making is to spend the next thirty days doing my deeper analysis, then the actual making of the offer is a low risk step. Many newbie buyers fail to realize this. They will ask for all sorts of information that is not as easy to get as it would be if the property were under contract. I am often asked, for example, for the list of tenants in a commercial building prior to receiving an offer. The prospective buyer wants to look at lease expiration dates, the financial credibility of the tenants etc. Better the prospect should make the offer first, based on assumptions of what he expects to see in the due diligence period, and then adjust his offering price after due diligence based on the facts that he did find out. There are ways to mitigate your risk (due diligence, escape clauses, ) that will help you avoid analysis paralysis.

3. The ability to delegate

Buyers need to build a team of trustworthy advisors like a good real estate agents, attorneys, and accountants. The inability to trust those people will lead to analysis paralysis. I see it all the time. I will say this, trust but verify; after all it is YOUR money, not your agents and certainly not your accountants. But delegation to your support people should be routine.

4. Prioritization

In order not to get bogged down in minutia, set your priorities. I have often said in this column that sitting down with your real estate adviser and establishing priorities and objectives is critical. This is not to say that they cannot be changed, but actually writing down your objectives and sharing them with your trusted advisors will help crystallize your analysis and help you avoid paralysis

5. The Ritualist .

The ritualist is the person who goes through the ritual of the analysis but ignores the purpose. I see ritualists every day. I'll say to someone, "Did you get through with so and so and find out the answer?" They reply, "I faxed him", or "I sent him an email," or "I left him a message"; Just to let me know they are trying but don't have the answer.. They think the proof of the attempt will satisfy me. In the same way the ritualist loses sight that the goal is to make a purchase, not just to do the analysis.

6. Goals

"Setting the goal; Making the goal; Scoring; Keeping your eye on the goal post." We all hear these things but many fail to do so. Unclear goals will muddy the analysis. What are we looking for? What are we trying to prove? Is the goal an 8% cap rate? A certain cash flow? A home on a golf course from under $700,000? Without clearly defined goal analysis gets stalled.

7. Experience

Ever hear someone remark that good old so and so has good gut instincts on when a deal is right? This may be true, but his instinct comes from experience. He has seen the situations before, he recognizes a situation from the big picture. He picks up details while absorbing the entire picture. He may look at a deal for a ten year old rental property and make some assumptions during his lighting fast analysis. He knows that ten years is about the life of a water heater, air conditioner, and most appliances. He didn't actually go into the home and inspect them yet. He made his offer with out inspection, figuring he would get to look if his offer was accepted during the due diligence phase. To some he may look like a "Ready? Fire! Aim!" guy, but his experience tells us he really is not.

8. Pack Mentality

For some reason earlier this week I had to go to Tatiana's desk to look something up on her computer.. She had a note posted on her monitor that was a quote from. Warren Buffet: "Be fearful when everyone is greedy and greedy when everyone is fearful" I love it. It changed my attitude the rest of the day. People are very fearful right now; buyers are scared and sellers are desperate. Now is the time to get greedy. Following the pack? Not me. Too much analysis will slow us down.

9. Defensibility

Some people go though analysis so they can later say, "This is why I did not buy." They are doing the analysis for the wrong reasons. They want to be able to defend their inaction.

10. Alternatives

Remember Yogi Berra saying, "When there is a fork in the road, take it?" Successful people are all about alternatives. "If not this, then what? If you have already decided that you can invest, say $100,000, what are the other ways that you can do this? What are the alternatives? Any analysis should take this into consideration. There is always an opportunity cost. Look fot r it, look for alternatives.

11. Hung by their own Petard.

"Don't let him get hung by his own petard" Is an expression that I have used when talking about a decision made not on reliable analysis but faulty analysis that was self serving. He knows his goal and made the data support the answer he already had in mind. If you are going to be honest with anyone, make sure it's your self.

12. Fear of Failure.

If we keep analyzing we eventually will be right, or the deal will be gone and we will not have to fail. Weigh your risks. Sometimes you will not know if the fork you take is the correct fork or the wrong fork until you take it.. But it is not like jumping out of a plane at 30,000 feet.. You should be able to turn around and try the other fork. (Stick your toe in the pool before you jump in)

13. Romance versus Logic.

Buying a home and buying an investments are two different things.. Don't confuse them. You need romance in your home, you don't need it in your investments. More next Week, GreggGregg.Fous@engelvoelsker.com

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Thursday, May 08, 2008

Who Does your Agent Work For?

WHO DOES YOUR AGENT WORK FOR? (MAKE SURE IT'S YOU)

Many years ago when I was living in Cincinnati I went to a business luncheon and the Key Note Speaker was a local journalist and ex-mayor of Cincinnati, Jerry Springer. There were only about 40 to 50 in attendance so it was a rather intimate gathering. I have always remembered something Jerry said about interviewing a potential news source. He said that he got the most important information from his sources after the interview was over; after he turned off the camera, turned off the microphone, or put his notebook away. The source would then let his guard down, assuming he was off the record, and he would wind up thinking Jerry was just a friendly guy that he could confide in. The source would "forget" who he was talking to.
In real estate, never forget who you are talking to. Is that agent you are chatting with working for you or for someone else? In fact, is that agent that you HIRED working for you or someone else? In Florida, a residential real estate licensee has three clear roles. He can act as
1. A single Agent, or
2. A transaction Agent, or
3. No Relationship at all
In all cases you should assume that the agent works for the OTHER GUY in the transaction unless you have signed a document that makes him YOUR SINGLE AGENT. Be careful what you disclose about your motivation, how high or low of a price you will take or pay, or any personal information that might effect negotiations (like your pending divorce or financial status).
When taking a listing for a property most Florida real estate agents represent themselves as a transaction broker. A transaction broker owes no loyalty, obedience, full disclosure, or full confidentiality to his client like a single agent would. Most agents find in easier to act is this role than as a single agent.
As a broker I always prefer to sign a single agency listing. I like to know very clearly who I am working for and who I owe loyalty to. It's less confusing for me and serves the client better.
When you are touring open houses or models for a developer, you can be sure that the agent is either a single agent for the seller or at the very least a transaction agent. Having a sharp agent as a single agent representing you and your interests is a wise move. There is a well believed myth that if you want to make the best deal on a purchase you should call the agent that has the listing. The popular thinking is that you can make a better "deal" when only dealing with one agent. The theory is that he has more room to negotiate since there is only one commission. It is my belief, however, that you are ALWAYS better off with good, professional and skilled representation in negotiations than if you deal on your own. The key here is the quality of your agent and how he can negotiate.
I have found that some agents not only don't work for their client very well, they really are just working for their own objectives. A few years ago I made an offer on a commercial condo here in Fort Myers, not too far from my home. I represented myself to the listing broker as an agent and made an offer on the property that was close to asking price. In the contract I was entitled to half the commission. Later that morning I was discussing this potential purchase with one of my friends. He knew the seller well. I asked him to do me a favor and put in a good word for me, tell him I was a serious buyer etc. My friend later reported to me that the seller had a few other offers that same day. I promptly called the listing agent and told her what I had heard and that I would remove all financing contingencies, I would shorten the due diligence period and told her very clearly that I wanted the place and there was room in my price. I clearly wanted the condo.
She called later that day to tell me that the seller had accepted another offer. No counter. No negotiations. I was furious. Indeed I would have paid OVER the asking price and was prepared to do that. Very simply the listing agent was not looking out for the best interest of her client. She was more concerned about getting the full commission - EVEN THOUGH TAKING A HIGHER THAN ASK OFFER WOULD HAVE BENEFITED THE SELLER. You see, the client was paying six percent no matter what. I lost the deal and the seller lost another $10,000 or so.

Brick Walls are there for a reason

Brick Walls are there for a Reason

This past week I traveled to Tampa for a meeting with the other franchise owners for Engel and Voelkers. We all had dinner just down the street from the Tampa Engel and Voelkers Shop. It was motivational for me to be around other like minded entrepreneurs anxious to be a success in the luxury home brokerage business. We compared stories over the tinkling of glass and the factitious care of waiters and wine stewards. As I looked around the restaurant (Timpanos in Tampa's Hyde Park) I could not help but think that business was good, we are not in a recession, and all these real estate brokers were making not only their quotas but enough money to eat at Timpanos and listen to Frank Sinatra recordings over the din of martini glasses and the poof of the flames of Steak Diane prepared table side. But alas, we were being treated by the master license partners, we lowly brokers did not have to pick up the tab, and indeed once we left the establishment, reality started to leak back into my conscience.

I left a bit early than the rest of the guests and headed over to my brother-in-laws' home to spend the night. Jake and his wife Janice live in Tampa. Jake builds restaurants up and down the east coast. We shared some stories about the slowing restaurant business and commercial real estate in general.

Once I got settled in for the night in the guest room, on the night stand was a copy of Randy Pauch's book, "The Last Lecture" It is a short book recounting Randy's lecture on what he wanted to tell his kids before he died. At 47 Randy was given six months to live. (Randy Pausch). The book was inspiring, made me cry a bit, and indeed deprived me of a full nights sleep.

There was a chapter in his book about brick walls. Randy eloquently teaches us that brick walls are there for a reason. They teach us how badly we want something. We all have our brick walls. Some are big; some are small, but their size and their ability to stop us depend more on us than the wall.

As a manager of a business I am confronted with brick walls on a daily basis; many of these brick walls belong to someone else and it is my job to put these walls in perspective for my associates. Scaling walls is not easy. Going round them is not easy. Turning away from the sight of one, unfortunately is easy.

In our real estate business we have many brick walls. The question you have to ask yourself is: how badly do I want to accomplish my goals? Are there alternative ways around the wall? Can I climb it? Can I knock it down? Is it indeed a real wall? Is the wall there just for you or can some one else with different tools knock down that wall?

A few Fridays ago I showed up at our downtown office to meet a family that was due to close on their home purchase. The representative for the lender was there but the title agency, after an hour wait, was still a no show. A brick wall - the title rep had all the paperwork. The buyers had their money and were ready to move in. The lender was ready to fund, but the title company, representing the bank that was selling the home (it was an REO sale), was a no show. I was told there was no way to close because we could not reach any representative of the title company in Sarasota.

I don't like brick walls: a few phone calls later, we had seller email all the documents to Valid Title, here in Fort Myers and with in three hours the deal was closed and the buyer was able to move in that afternoon. No brick wall.

A few years ago I was getting ready for another closing - one on a house Gail and I were buying. My attorney called me three days before the closing and told me that there was a cloud on the title and the home could not be sold. This was a surprise to the seller, who had already put a deposit on another home and had packed their moving van; it was a surprise to me, as Gail and I had already begun our move, and it was of course a surprise to the lenders. The deal was in danger of falling apart totally. The seller was going to lose their new house purchase and deposit, Gail and I were going to lose our dream home, and money that was spent was, well, spent. Time for some brick wall climbing.

We went around this brick wall this way: We were able to loan the seller $250,000 by taking a mortgage from them on another home they had that had clear title on, this way they could buy there next home, Gail and I were able to lease the home from the seller until title cleared, and all parties were satisfied. Wall gone.

Sometimes I hear about little brick walls from people that indicate to me that they really didn't want something bad enough to find away around the brick wall. I always tell my employees I do not like to hear why something can't be done.. I like to hear alternatives. I want to here ideas.. tell me how TO DO IT, not HOW NOT.

"My business cards didn't come yet." The agent who doesn't want to go out call calling may use this as their brick wall that prevents them from cold calling.. The agent who adds, "So I printed some temporary cards in the meantime," is used to scaling walls and getting to his objective.

Eighty percent of our success comes from within, not from our tools or outside influences. Don't blame the brick walls, and indeed don't count on them as substantiation for your failure.. Find a way around them to your goals.